MPC looks to keeping interest rates frozen

The minutes from April’s monetary policy committee show that the Bank of England’s policy makers are in favour of holding rates at the all time record low of half a percent.

The particular vote was registered as being six to three in favour of retaining the current rates and keeping them in the meantime. This will be the third month back to back that the very same three members have voted to elevate rates. The committee has even so held that their approach to inflation had not changed and that rates will remain the very same. It truly is unlikely that the Bank of England will raise that interest rate until august on account of the chance that inflation could grow to or exceed 5%.

Two of the committee members, Mr Dale and Mr Weale voted for a raise of 25 basis points to 0.75% and Mr Sentance voted for a raise of 50 basis points to 1%. This comes soon after Februarys fall inside the consumer cost index to 4% was combined having a rise to 5.4% of the producerprice index. Mr Posen even so, voted to enhance the asset purchase programme by £50bn bringing the quantitative easing to a total of £250bn

Tesco revenue up under fresh chief executive Philip

Tesco profits have continued to increase, but the company warns that the UK market is sluggish.

Tesco reported their year end revenue shows that the flourishing Asian marketplace is accountable for the expansion.

Tesco initial opened up an Asian shop in 97 in Thailand and the Asian marketplace has become a crucial element of their marketplace ever since. In 07 they relocated into the Chinese marketplace being already committed to 46 sister shops called Le Gou. These days they’ve about one hundred hypermarkets in China in which the strategy to double within the subsequent 5 years.

For the 12 months closing 26 February 2011 their before taxes earnings had been upward from final 12 months having an increase around 11.3% to £3.54bn. This general development consists of the Asian aspect of the company, signifies one-third of their earnings. Searching only in the earnings within the Asian marketplace they show an improvement of 30% which off sets the poor overall performance of the United kingdom marketplace.

Tesco also commented on how the UK and US markets were both suffering from slow and sluggish economies.

Spain weakens on debt fears

Concerns about the so-called PIGS - Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain - continue to dominate the financial news as the likelihood of a second wave to the financial crisis, this time a sovereign crisis, with countries likely to default on the huge debt they carry.

Today’s news is that spreads on Spanish bonds continue to rise, with a coming meeting between Spanish leaders and the IMF speculated to herald a call to tap into a Greek-style emergency fund for the country.

 Investors have already been withdrawing from exposure to Spanish debt, much to the concern of companies such as Santander, who continue to insist on being strong and well-capitalised. What is very interestng is that some commentators raised concerns about Santander nearly two years ago, when the banking crisis was seen as primarily UK-driven.

While the Euro appears to have performed well today, as much of the news remains focused on BP, coverage in the Telegraph raises an interesting report from AXA which suggests a break-up of the Euro is an increasing likelihood, as opposed to being doom-laden speculation.

 One thing remains certain, and that’s the Eurozone will remain very much under scrutiny for some time - because at the moment, it appears less a question as to whether a crisis will hit, as much as when and how much.

 

Early ISA deadline warning

It’s that time of year again - when the deadline for last year’s ISA’s allowance comes up and is gone forever.

To be part of this year’s allowance, the transaction will need to be completed by 6 April 2010.

However, due to the Easter Bank Holiday, savers and investors only have until Saturday 3 April to do this.

Therefore if you haven’t already put your ISA money away, you have only days to get the situation addressed.

According to CityWire, the following are the best ISA’s currently on the market:

Leeds Building Society ISA - five-year fixed rate paying 4.6%
Nationwide Building Society cash ISA - five year fixed paying 4.25%
Saga at 3.9%
Coventry Building Society - one-year fixed rate at 3.25%
Santander Flexible ISA - 3.2%
Barclays Golden ISA - 3.10%.
Cheltenham & Gloucester - two year fix at 3.5%
Post Office - one-year fixed-rate at 3%

Change of ISP and broadband

Well, it looks as though I’m finally moving ISP from Zen back to BT broadband, as I just called Zen for a MAC code.

It’s a shame, really, as Zen has a far better reputation for service and support than BT, but the problem of wireless interference is a constant and annoying problem.

Plus BT are offering mobile broadband with their new broadband packages, and free BT openzone minutes, which will be very useful for business travel.

The caveat is that the pricing on the BT website is quite misleading, as those shown only apply to certain exchanges (apparently) plus they include 24-month pricing, which can take as much as 25%-30% off the 12-month price (so Option 3 is £45+VAT over 24 months, or £30+VAT over 12 months).

Still, at least I know from experience that the BT router supplied is far less susceptible to wireless intereference.

Which is very important, because if I couldn’t get decent business broadband, I’d have to consider more serious broadband connection packages, such as a leased line or custom business SDSL, both of which are priced higher than normal mass-market broadband packages.

In the meantime, I can only hope the move to BT goes smoothly, and that I don’t end up getting caught up in their cold automated support process - as BT customer service is not renown for being good.

Problems continue for the UK eocnomy

The more I read about the impact of the financial crisis in the UK, the more it feels that the UK is doomed economically, and that the best option now while you have cash in Great British Sterling is to cash out and move aborad to somewhere more financially sound - ie, not threatened with collapse by the weight of its own debt.

That may seem somewhat alarmist, but despite the claims of "green shoots" earlier in the year, we have not seen any signs that the economy is returning to normal. In fact, anything but, and that at best we’re moving into a "lost decade" similar as to what happened to Japan.

Britain’s debt to GDP is spiralling out of control, and even measures to reduce costs being mooted by Labour and the Conservatives are plain in their limitations - we are in far too much of a hole to be able to dig us out even within the next Parliament. It’s going to take a full decade to even begin to expect to bring British debt to normality, and during this period, there is no reason to presume the economy will fare any better.

Repossessions continue to be high, insolvencies are expected to increase, and consumer debt is growing through credit cards and loans at a time when paying are supposedly paying off debt. Unemployment continues to increase in leaps and bounds (forget that’s its slowing - double dip, people), and rather than help employers hire, the government is actually going to tax companies more for employing people.

In the meantime, ratings agencies expect at least a further 15% fall in house prices in the UK, and at a time when the market is limping forward, the FSA wants to bring in tougher rules on mortgages, while at the same time demanding banks hoard more cash.

And that’s before we even get into the threats of deflation and unknown consequences of "Quantitive Easing".

The result of all these pieces in play can hardly be good for Britain - worsening debt, worsening access to credit, worsening consumer spending, falling asset prices, etc. The strategies in play may be different to Japan in the 90’s, but the state of play is looking increasingly like it.

The problem, of course, is that while matters are exacerbated in the UK, these are afflictions across the world economy. So where is safe?

The answer is relative - the financial crisis is firmly rooted in the US and Europe, and while other areas have been impacted, their fundamantals have been far less knocked by comparison.

Asia remains strong and a bulwark so far against global financial collapse. While no doubt asset bubbles there are growing, they still don;t have the problem of being so invested in complex debt instruments that have so far crippled US and European banks.

Personally speaking, Thailand looks idyllic, but remains subject to Typhoons, as does much of East Asia. A good place to consider investing in, though.

South America is another emerging economy as well, not least in terms of investments, such as land for sale Brazil & property for sale Brazil. If South America itself seems a little rough, you could always consider moving towards central America, not least Panama, which remains under US control, and still offers a lot of decent property for sale Panama.

Australia or New Zealand could even be places worth considering moving to - close enough to Asia to feel the economic benefit, but heavily Anglicised.

In the meantime, now seems to be the moment to batten down the hatches or move on - economic power is clearly heading East, and to developing nations, and for those who remain, only the prophets of doom are left to comfort us.

Broadband problems - interference

I don’t normally write about technical issues. Though I can use computer technology, it all goes over my head and I don’t have a clue how it all works.

I’ve come across an interesting problem while setting up my home office, though - wireless interference.

I was originally with BT as my ISP for broadband, but after previous problems with the company I decided quality of service was more important than price, so I moved to Zen Internet.

They sold me a Thomson TG784 router with the package, and all seemed to be running fine.

Until I bought a nice cordless phone, a Panasonic KX for the home office.

Both work very well and as required most of the time, but the problem is that whenever anybody rings, the broadband cuts out.

The result is quite annoying, especially as I keep getting sales calls from loan companies using autodiallers - which disconnects the internet every time, even when I pick up the phone on the first ring.

I’ve contacted Zen about the problem, but they haven’t been much help at all. And I wouldn’t expect much from Panasonic as the phone does exactly what is expected from it.

I was beginning to think I needed a different business broadband service. After all, there is a myriad of types to choose from - ADSL, SDSL, bonded broadband and even leased lines. And don’t forget the satellite option!

Apparently, though, wireless interference is not all that uncommon.

The frustration is that if wireless interference is such a problem, then why is more effort not made by manufacturers to minimise the risk of it happening in

the first place?

This is especially when there appears to be quite a push to make much of home networking wireless.

It looks as though I will now have to look at changing my router to one that runs on a different frequency. which is obviously going to be cheaper than

having to get a new type of broadband installed.

It is still a pain, though. Still, I do not think I am the only one who has never got frustrated over a computer issue!

Still no room for economic optimism

This spring’s green shoots are being increasing shown to have misplaced optimism, with economic conditions continuing to worsen within the UK - GDP continues to fall, and expectations of a recovery for next year remain muted.

While it’s easy to just look at the UK in isolation, there are a couple of major economic pointers on the horizon that suggest the world’s economy could suffer major set backs - even before a recovery has begun. And this is likely to bode ill for Britain, with existing downbeat expectations potentially proving to be optimistic if these factors play out.

The first is the credit bubble in China. So far, the Chinese economy has continued to grow strong - but it seems that rather than learn from the mistakes of the West, the Chinese are keen to repeat them. Yes, there’s a credit bubble forming in the Chinese economy, as the government there encourages lending to such a degree that the IMF is already alarmed.

The second is the original engine of the credit crunch - the US real estate market. So far it has shown no real recovery, and what’s worse, is that not only are repossessions (foreclosures) continuing to increase, they are not expected to peak until after August 2011, when the last big wave of ARMs - subprime mortgages - come up for renewal past their discount period.

These are not the only negative indicators - the IMF continues to warn that the world economy faces a deflationary spiral, that if borne out, could leave much of the West enduring an economic scenario equivalent to Japan’s lost decades.

The UK has its own problems as well, not least due to the major debt bubble it’s been sitting on for the past few years (it’s not simply about house prices anymore). Lending in the UK is still suffering, with a mass withdrawal from the personal loans market, and such poor lending to business by the banks that Alaister Darling is now having to try and appear to be doing something about it. In the meantime, the IMF is warning that the UK’s credit card debt could be crippling.

Any suggestion of an improving mortgage market should be taken in context of the fact that Spring and summer are traditionally the peak season - and what we’ve seen so far is still weak.

In short, economic conditions in the world remain fragile, but there are no positive indicators at present to suggest we’re past the worst of it - anything but. There are still major dangers on the horizon, which leave little room for optimism for future economic conditions.

Economy optimism misguided

Edmund Conway in the Telegraph claims the recession is over, which is about as outrageously optimistic as you can get.

Much of this unfounded optimism seems focused on the fact that the property market has seen a positive bounce over this spring - mortgage lending is up, buyer enquiries are up, and the DCLG reported a 1.1% rise in house prices over April.

The problem is, spring has always been prime home buying time, so to extrapolate this into some form of economic recovery seems absurd. It really does look like a bounce, which means we should expect economic conditions to get a lot worse towards the winter - as the property market traditionally cools.

In the meantime, other economic indicators are looking increasingly adverse.

We’ve seen repeated claims that the European banks have not written down their losses. In the meantime, Eastern Europe looks like it could crash and drag a lot of Europe down with it through a chain reaction. Latvia is already in big trouble and could be the smoking gun to bring the rest of Eastern Europe down with it, and a number of central European banks with them. And that’s before we address the issue of existing write-downs the ECB is already severely worried about.

In the meantime, here in the UK, the whole banking sector continues to reshuffle in order to try and adapt to what still remains a crisis.

RBS is looking to split off business deals it claims as "unprofitable" into a separate group - in the meantime, as if the market hadn’t already got itself into trouble creating complex debt instruments, this is exactly what is being proposed to get the UK taxpayer money back from semi-nationalised banks such as the RBS and Lloyds Group. 

Among the building societies, the government is looking to allow changes to how they fund themselves in mass markets, in order to stop a repeat of the Dunfermline Building society crash. This is not least because others, not least the West Bromwich Building Society and others are also believed to be on the brink of collapse.

The Nationwide Building Society has already raised its mortgage rates sharply this week, close on the heels of other increases in mortgage rates last month. While the Nationwide remained one of the cheapest mortgage loan providers around, it no longer appears to be trying to outcompete other mortgage lenders.

If anything, the entire financial world still seems to be on a downward spiral. While the potential collapse of the banking sector appears to have been averted - certainly for now - the global economic picture is anything but healthy.

Stay tuned.

Crisis hits car insurers

One of the lesser reported stories to make the news during this economic crisis is the issue of increasing fraud and avoidance hitting the insurance industry.

In this month alone we’ve seen a couple of different stories come up on this. On the one hand, is the frightening statistic that police are now seizing 460 uninsured vehicles per day. That’s well over 150,000 vehicles per year. And the figure appears to be increasing because some people think they can no longer afford their car insurance, and so drive without any protection. Which is mad when you think of the possible costs and impact on work of having your car towed away.

On the other hand, a general escalation of insurance fraud, not least among car insurance claims. It seems that drivers are either trying not to pay on their insurance, or else trying to play it to pay for other costs.

It’s important to realise that car insurance isn’t a luxury - it’s a necessity, and for protecting the driver’s interests at that.

While most accidents in the UK are not fatal, there are still more than 8 deaths on the road each day. And even seemingly minor injuries such as whiplash are renown for the potential to develop into a more debilitating medical condition.

In either instance of injury or death in a car accident, the insurance isn’t going to heal wounds or resurrect - but at least it can pay for costs, for repairing or replacing the vehicle, paying for extra medical expenses, and many have a built in death policy which can help protect income and inheritance for dependents.

In the meantime, I’m currently running a car insurance policy with Nationwide, but I’m very close to being eligible for the over-50 discounts with Saga. As I’ve iterated before, though, don’t try and save money trying to get the cheapest car insurance, but instead look for one that gives you all the cover you need.

After all, where’s the point of saving a few pounds, if in the event of a claim, it can cost you a lot more in expenses, lost time, and lost income, by having the wrong policy?

While there’s little call to be unduly sympathetic to insurers, it remains a concern to all consumers because policy premiums are simply increased to pay for the costs of fraud, which hits everybody.